Wednesday, June 29, 2005

The 3.8% annual GDP Growth

It sounds like too many 'One-Shot' economic initiatives to the Author. It may include much Inventory selling, and reflect the rise in Oil prices. There is some relief in the later:

Oil Falls Below $58 as Crude Stocks Rise
By REUTERS
Published: June 29, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-markets-oil.html

The current Oil price is some $3 off the High, due to the rise in U.S. Crude oil stocks of 1.1 million barrels. The interesting spread here lies in the difference between analysts' forecast of a 1.4 million barrel drop in Crude stocks. The Spread is 2.5 million barrels, of which only 794,000 barrels can be accounted for in new increased Imports. We are over 1.5 million barrels short of a projected usage, using previous Year usage rates. It is not that great a reduction considering the daily American Oil consumption rate, only in the 200k barrel per day range, but the higher Fuel prices have impacted. Current Crude prices mean a likely $.12-.20 Pump price increase within July. Summer vacation season may be foreshortened.


Mortgage Applications Dip Last Week
By REUTERS
Published: June 29, 2005
http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/business-economy-mortgages.html

This is the article to read for concerned Economists. The mortgage rates are dropping, but applications are also dropping. The fall in Refinancing mortgages indicate Consumers are starting to hesitate in financing their Consumption through refinancing. The increase in percentage of Fixed Rate to Variable Rate mortgages express the thought of the Smart Money that rates will not reduce further. This Author suspects the Upgrade element of the Housing bubble has seen it's day. Business construction may have to carry the Economy by sometime next Year. lgl

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